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Leaping to Conclusions: An act of faith or an act of fear?
© 2007 Al Brockway / The Decision Enabler™

June 2007

Often, when we're faced with deadlines, we end up making poor decisions. The pressure to do something can cause us to abandon rational thinking and rely too much on gut reaction or intuition, rather than logically thinking things through. Most of us trust our intuition more than we should. Not only can this reliance lead to ill-conceived decisions, but quite possibly, to confrontations with colleagues who may disagree.

In The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge talks about the concept of "leaps of abstraction". His theory is that our minds race at lightning speed towards generalizations or conclusions that we never think to test against reality.

Whether developing strategy, problem solving or in a negotiation, too much reliance on 'gut over brain' can be disastrous. The perceived benefits are that it is quick and easy and gives us that fuzzy, warm feeling of finalizing something. Unfortunately, bad decisions are rarely 'final'.

Like a circus act, our minds can jump us through several hoops and ladders. First, we start filtering the facts through our own set of preconceived beliefs. Then we make assumptions and draw our own conclusions. We then develop an unshakable faith that we are on the right track. We are now set up to ignore the real facts, preferring to rely on those we have selectively developed. We have an 'aha!' moment and take action on what we now believe to be true.

We are all victims of this tendency. You are better able to see it happen in others; while others will see it in you and start putting up defenses and delays.

Avoiding costly mistakes:
According to organizational psychologist Chris Argyris, you can avoid these costly mistakes and conflicts by taking a few steps and asking yourself a few questions. I've adapted his list of questions as follows:

Do I really have all the facts or am I merely selecting my own beliefs?

Am I just making assumptions or have I tested them rigorously?

Why am I making these assumptions?

Am I forming conclusions based on reality?

How did I decide this is the right thing to do?

Why is this the right thing to do?

As you progress through a decision or problem, constantly ask yourself "What am I thinking" and "Why?" You may need to change some assumptions.

If you do rush to a decision, you can also pressure test its soundness by working backwards through your process. Ask yourself:

Why this action? Should I consider other actions?

How valid is the belief that lead me to this?

Why did I draw those conclusions?

What am I assuming, and why?

Why did I use the specific information I considered?

Will you do this every time? Of course not, it depends on the gravity of situation. Most times you'll 'wing it' -- relying on your intuition to handle obvious situations.

Here's a way to handle the more challenging issues:

Make a list of the really important upcoming decisions and don't let time pressures dictate too quick a response.

Set aside entire mornings -- remember, you've already decided that these issues are the important ones -- to decide how you will approach each one.

Use a sounding board to critically and comprehensively analyze your thought process. This should be someone not involved in the decision or problem.

A true outsider, whether an expert within your organization, a consultant with unique expertise, or a trusted friend, can help to ensure that your thinking is unbiased and logical.

Carefully considering the options and logically assessing the consequences takes longer and is just plain hard work. But it gets results: solid testing of assumptions, stronger challenges to other people's conclusions, concrete analyses, and in short, better decisions.

-Al Brockway is the founder and President of The Decision Enabler™.